Three weeks “with a tail” is left until the end of this year. But it will be a busy time for the event. Let’s try to understand what is really important for the market now.
U.S.-China trade war. She’s already off the agenda. The market hardly reacts to events. The deal will not be clear this year. Everyone’s not interested anymore.
Monetary policy of the Fed. On the contrary, it is a very interesting point. This week, the Fed will announce a decision on the interest rate. The probability that it will change is almost non-existent. But it’s much more interesting to hear Powell’s words at the press conference. How he will explain the crisis of dollar liquidity, which can actually bring down the U.S. stock market. As well as it is interesting to hear about the future plans of the non-E. We see with you how the Balance of the Fed is growing at a record pace, while it is growing on the purchase of T-bill, repo operations, and, for some reason, on the purchase of bonds. The latter should not be, but there is.
Monetary policy of the ECB. Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference as head of the ECB for the first time. She has already said that the economy needs me and so on, but the market needs facts and concrete actions. If Lagarde talks about the new actions of the ECB to support the economy, and if the market believes it, we will see a sell-off of the Euro this week. Although it is hard to believe.
The Brexit theme is coming back. Ahead of the general election, in which Boris Johnson’s party is likely to win and Britain awaits an exit from the EU with a deal at the end of January 2020. In any case, the market is filled with such a positive now. Will the pound rise at the time of Johnson’s victory, or has someone already bought up all the facts? The intrigue is worth the spotlight.
All the events described are aimed at this week. And this is not all that can give volatility before the end of the year. That’s why we don’t lose concentration. And don’t relax ahead of time.
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