Last week, the Russian ruble fell against the Chinese currency, closing at 9.14 per yuan.
Note that the price of Oil Light showed negative dynamics at the end of the week. Pressure on the quotes was exerted by EIA data, according to which the reserves of “black gold” for the week increased by 1.572 million barrels, although it was expected to decrease by 0.418 million barrels after an increase of 1.379 million barrels a week earlier. Additional pressure was also exerted by rumors that the probability of extending the terms of the deal to reduce production is not so high.
From macroeconomic statistics in Russia came data on international reserves, which for the week amounted to $542.7 billion compared to $540.1 billion a week earlier.
On the world market last week, the currency pair closed in a small negative amid the continuing uncertainty around the trade war between the United States and China. Earlier in the week it became known that the Chinese government is ready to make a number of concessions to protect intellectual property. However, in the middle of the week, Donald Trump signed the Human Rights and Democracy Act in Hong Kong to which the Chinese government reacted very negatively. In this regard, investors again began to believe that the signing of the interim agreement is again under threat.
From the important macroeconomic statistics in the U.S. was published revised GDP, which in the third quarter increased by 2.1%, while analysts predicted an increase of 1.9%. In China, the NBS industrial activity index was released, which in November was 50.2 points compared to 49.3 points in October, which was positively received by investors. However, profits of China’s big industrial enterprises fell for the third month in a row in October, sowing by 9.9% to 427.6 billion yuan ($60.79 billion).
This week, the yuan is slightly lower against the ruble, but sags against the US dollar. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that with the signing of the interim deal it is better to wait until the end of the presidential elections in 2020, noting that China, on the contrary, wants to conclude a deal now. Among the important macroeconomic statistics in China was published index of business activity in industry Caixin, which in November was 51.8 points compared to 51.7 points in October. Analysts had forecast a figure of 51.4 points. Also released were data on the index of business activity in the services sector Caixin, which in November was 53.5 points compared to 51.1 points in October. At the end of the week, China will publish the trade balance for November.
In the U.S., it is worth following the release of the data block on the labor market in the U.S. According to our expectations, employment in the non-agricultural sector increased by 180,000 in November, the unemployment rate was 3.6%. The average working week and the average hourly wage for November will also be made public. In addition, the U.S. will publish data on the preliminary index of consumer confidence of the University of Michigan for December
It is also worth paying attention to the weekly data on oil reserves in the United States. Analysts expect inventories to fall by 1.734 million barrels.
On the daily chart, the CNY/RUB pair is traded within a downward wedge with a upper boundary of around 9.15. The lower boundary tends to 8.8. Stochastic lines are in a favorable for sale, but soon will reach the oversold zone, so it is expected to suspend the downward movement.
On the daily chart, the USD/CNY pair trades within a divergent triangle with a lower boundary of about 6.92 and a top in the region of 7.06. Stochastic lines are in a favorable position for purchase, but have already reached the overbought zone, so it is allowed to suspend the upward movement.
Vadim Sysoev, analyst at FINAM