Last week, the Russian ruble strengthened against the Chinese currency, closing at 8.88 per yuan, in particular, against the background of growing risk appetite among investors after the U.S. and China managed to conclude an interim trade deal, which caused the inflow of foreign capital to emerging markets.
In addition, the ruble was supported by the price of Light oil, which showed positive dynamics. Market participants were optimistic about the data from the EIA agency, which showed a decrease in u.S. black gold reserves for the week by 1.085 million barrels, although it was expected a larger decline (by 1.288 million barrels) after an increase of 0.822 million barrels a week earlier. However, on Friday, oil prices sagged slightly, reacting negatively to the comments of some analysts that in 2020 the volume of supplies of “black gold” may exceed the level of its consumption.
From macroeconomic statistics in Russia came data on international reserves, which for the week amounted to $548.7 billion compared to $546.6 billion a week earlier. At the same time, the unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, while analysts predicted the figure at 4.7%. At the same time, industrial production in November increased by 0.3% yoy compared to an increase of 2.6% yoy a month earlier.
On the world market last week, the currency pair closed in a small plus. As stated above, the currency pair was supported by the news that the United States and China have agreed a trade agreement within the framework of the first phase. Recall that the U.S. did not impose additional tariffs on imports of goods from China worth $160 billion, and also reduced by 50% duties on Chinese goods worth $120 billion. At the same time, China will buy $50 billion worth of agricultural products from the United States. In addition, according to the latest reports, the trade agreement has already been translated and is not subject to change, and the document will be officially signed in January 2020.
From macroeconomic statistics in the U.S. was published the final GDP, which in the third quarter grew by 2.1%, which coincided with the expectations of analysts. Also pleased investors data on industrial production, which in November grew by 1.1%, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%. At the same time, China released strong data on retail sales, which in November grew by 8% yoy, while analysts predicted an increase of 7.6% yoy.
This week, the yuan continues to decline against the ruble, but slightly strengthens against the US dollar. In general, the current week will be calm due to the Christmas holidays. Important macroeconomic statistics will not be published in the United States or China.
Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the weekly data on oil reserves in the United States. Analysts expect inventories to fall by 1.833 million barrels.
In the daily chart, the CNY/RUB pair tests the lower boundary of the downward wedge at around 8.8. The upper boundary tends to mark 9. Stochastic lines are in a favorable for sale, but at the same time have reached the oversold zone, so it is expected to complete the downward movement.
On the daily chart, the USD/CNY pair trades within the downstream channel with a lower boundary of about 6.9 and a top in the region of 7.02. Stochastic lines are in a favorable position for sale and are still far from the oversold zone, so local corrective movement is allowed.
Sysoev Vadim, Lead Analyst in FINAM World Markets Analysis