Today, before the opening of the Russian market, a neutral external background for the ruble took shape. The consolidation of currencies of developing countries and the consolidation of crude oil above $ 56 will contribute to the transition of the ruble into lateral movement at Thursday closing levels. As a result, the dollar at the beginning of the day will hold positions in the region of 63.6 rubles. During the bidding, a slight decrease in the American currency is possible against the background of profit taking on speculative long positions on the eve of the weekend. At the same time, within the framework of today's session, we expect the dollar to maintain positions in the range of 63.2 – 64.4 rubles. Note that, according to our model, 62.4 – 63.2 rubles per unit of the American currency acts as a fair range for the pair, which indicates an adequate assessment by the market of the Russian currency regarding current oil prices, macro indicators and seasonal factors. At the same time, the technical picture on the dollar chart speaks in favor of a possible continuation of the upward trend and reaching the level of 64.4 rubles. To cancel this scenario, the dollar "bears" need to withdraw the American currency below the lows of Wednesday. This will lead to the breakdown of a short-term uptrend, originating from the lows of the year and passing in the region of 63.1 rubles, which will speak in favor of the resumption of a full decrease in the dollar / ruble pair.
Recall that a day earlier, the main world currencies were able to confidently strengthen against the ruble. So, by the end of the day, the dollar was up 0.7%, having completed trading slightly above 63.6 rubles, the euro added 0.4% to 69 rubles.
Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst at PSB
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