The Russian stock market opened yesterday with a collapse of about 9%. However, there was a powerful rebound from the mark of 2000 points. This level remains the strongest technical support, however, we do not exclude its puncture and even breakdown when new negative or new fears appear.
The West has again started talking about sanctions, but they are unlikely to be sensitive, since all the sanctions ideas have already been introduced. It is possible that the case will be limited to imposing restrictions on some politicians or officials.
At the same time, there are no special reasons for growth.
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve expected rates by 0.75 percentage points, while sharply reducing the forecast for the economy. Now the Fed expects US GDP growth of only 0.2% this year, against the previously expected 1.7%.
Naturally, the American stock market reacted to this with a fall, but for us the biggest threat is that, along with the decline in the world’s largest economy, demand for oil and metals may fall. So far, it is slightly above $90 per barrel, demonstrating the intention to grow.
It is possible that today we will try to grow a little, but, most likely, for some time we will have a flat within the boundaries of 2000-2200 points.
In the current situation, we expect that the shares of companies focused on domestic consumption, including retailers, will outperform the market. Of the exporters, it is worth paying attention to the issuers whose products the Western world is in dire need of. Among them, we would like to single out securities of fertilizer producers and VSMPO Avisma (MCX:).
It is also possible that they will start picking up Gazprom’s 24% dividend yield (MCX:).
at the beginning of the day it fell by 2.5%, by the end of the main session, almost all the losses were won back. The stability of the ruble is due, first of all, to the uselessness and toxicity of the dollar and. Now the “Russian” also receives support from the tax period.