Despite the growth of activity in global stock markets, the situation on the currency market remains quite calm. The pair continues to consolidate in the bottom half of the 64-64.50 rubles/dollar range, and the main group of EM currencies also does not show much activity. THE MSCI Emerging Market currency index is still holding close to 1,630 points.
Yesterday it became known that next week the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the U.S. Senate will vote on a bill providing for the imposition of sanctions against Russia. Earlier, we noted that the size of the sanctions premium in the ruble and Russian assets, in our estimation, is close to zero, so in case of aggravation of this group of risks, the movement in Russian assets can be pronounced. At the same time, we note that so far we are talking only about voting in the profile committee, and not voting of the Senate as a whole, respectively, the process of work on the bill can be quite long.
From the internal stories we will highlight yesterday’s statements of the deputy head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation V. Kolychev that the Ministry of Finance will discuss with the Central Bank the option of reducing deferred currency purchases in the market to use the freed money as spending by the FNB to finance Russian projects. If such a scenario is realized, subject to comparable oil prices, the volume of currency purchases under the budget rule will decrease next year (at the moment, the daily volume of deferred purchases of the Bank of Russia is about 2.8 billion rubles per day).
On the horizon of the coming days we still expect the movement of the dollar/rouble pair in the range of 64-64.50 rubles/dollar.
Mikhail Poddubsky, Promslinkbank
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