On Thursday, February 13, against a rather negative news background, the ruble decided to rest again, while the dollar and euro recouped a little for past losses. As a result, by the close of trading, the exchange rate for tomorrow’s settlements increased by 42 kopecks. (+ 0.66%), up to 63.63 rubles. The course has grown much less by 20 kopecks. (+ 0.3%), up to 68.95 rubles.
And the price of Brent crude on Thursday rose by 0.34%, to $ 56.44 per barrel. In the quarterly economic forecast, the European Commission raised the average annual estimate of Brent barrel for 2020 to $ 60.4 per barrel, in addition, news about the reduction by OPEC member countries + of oil production in January by 127% positively affects the market.
However, negative on the oil market on Thursday “flew” from Fitch, which issued a negative forecast that the extension of the OPEC + deal only until the end of the first half of 2020, if accepted, will be completely offset by the outbreak of coronavirus on the Chinese economy and low demand for oil. Today in the morning it began to fall in price again, at the moment it is becoming cheaper by 0.19%.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization on Thursday released a grim forecast that in an unfavorable scenario in China, up to two thirds of the world's population could become infected with coronavirus. Together with pessimistic forecasts for the Chinese economy, these predictions additionally created a negative background in the global financial and commodity markets. American and European stock indices at yesterday's auction went negative.
We expect at the opening of the market a slight weakening of the ruble. For now, we maintain the forecast for the dollar at 63-64.5 rubles. and at the euro exchange rate of 68-69.2 rubles.
Natalia Milchakova, Deputy Head of IAC “Alpari”