On Thursday, November 7, the ruble turned into a revolutionary offensive against the dollar and the euro, setting the “American” and “European” red day of the calendar. At the close of trading on Thursday, the US dollar fell by 33pc. (-0.52%), to 63.54 rubles and the euro fully offset the growth that occurred on Wednesday, and fell by 55kop. (-0.77%), up to $70.15.
The strengthening of the Russian ruble is due to the positive dynamics of world financial markets, connected with news about the possible achievement of agreements between Washington and Beijing on the mutual abolition of trade duties. It is not yet clear where and when the leaders of the United States and China will sign the first phase of the trade agreement, so that the growth of world stock markets and emerging currencies could quickly be exhausted if misunderstandings arise again in the relations between the two great powers.
In addition, an additional background for strengthening the ruble was created by the news spread by the Western media that the Russian Ministry of Finance intends in 2020 to radically change the structure of currencies in which savings are invested in the National Welfare Fund, in favor of a significant reduction in the share of the Us dollar.
The price of grade oil at ICE on Thursday showed an increase of 0.88%, to $61.99 per barrel on expectations of trade agreements between China and the United States. However, at night there was a Bloomberg report that the OPEC member countries do not intend to discuss a more substantial reduction in oil production in 2020 at the December meeting. In morning trading, the price of Brent goes down, losing in value 0.43%.
We believe that at the opening of trading the ruble can again adjust slightly downwards. For now, we keep the forecast for the dollar at 63-64.6 rubles, and the forecast for the euro at 70-71.5 .
Natalia Milchakova, deputy head of alpari Information and Analysis Centre