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The risks of leaving the US currency below 50-52 rubles. slightly weakened

At the beginning of the week, world markets did not show a single dynamics. The index of developed countries (World: +0.1%) showed only symbolic growth, while the index of developing countries (MSCI EM: +1.6%) continued to strengthen significantly. At the same time, optimism on the US market has somewhat cooled down, despite good data on orders for durable goods in May, which accelerated their growth to 0.7% m/m against 0.2% m/m in April. During the auction, the yield of 10-year US government bonds did not change and remained close to the level of 3.1-3.2%. The broad market index at the end of the day lost 0.3% after a significant increase on Friday, but remained at the level of 3900 points. At the same time, the oil and gas sector and healthcare went against the market. The technology sector became an outsider with a loss of 0.7% of the Composite index.

On Tuesday, there is a weakly positive external background. Key Asian indices are rising except for the Indian stock exchange. Futures for US and European indices are consolidating at yesterday’s closing levels, while oil prices are rising.

Today will be lean on macro news. Statements by individual representatives of the Fed and the ECB are possible. Due to growth in commodity markets, we expect positive dynamics in the markets of developing countries, while developed markets may succumb to decline.

The Russian stock market was able to grow yesterday, despite another increase in sanctions risks. decreased at the beginning of trading, but then recovered and ended the day above 2400 points.

The trading leader was the financial sector (Sberbank (MCX:): +2.5%; VTB (MCX:): +2.7%), which showed positive dynamics for the fourth day in a row. With the ruble strengthening and lending activity stabilizing, shares of financial institutions look attractive.

Papers of the oil and gas sector did not show a single dynamics. Bashneft (MCX:) (+1.2%) and Tatneft (MCX:) (+2.1%) securities stood out. Shares of Gazprom (MCX:) (+0.1%) looked unprincipled despite the approaching shareholder meeting (June 30). However, the positive decision of shareholders on dividend payments, in our opinion, is already in the price.

The mining and metallurgy sector looked indistinct. Papers of Norilsk Nickel (MCX:) (-1.8%) and gold miners fell. Shares of Polyus (MCX:) (-2.2%) and Polymetal (MCX:) (-4.3%) fell due to a possible ban on imports to the G7 countries from Russia.

Among other securities, let us single out depositary receipts of the consumer sector. Sollers (MCX:) also jumped on positive corporate news.

If the Moscow Exchange index fixes above 2400 points, growth may continue up to 2500 points. At the same time, papers of the financial sector may still be better than the market.

The Russian foreign exchange market remained unprincipled and consolidated for the fourth day in a row. Monday’s trading in the pair went according to the usual scenario of the last days – morning attempts to raise the dollar were quickly bought out, after which the dollar returned to the price range of 53-53.5 rubles, again ending the auction at 53.4 rubles. The euro-ruble pair grew a little, keeping in the zone of 56-56.5 rubles, partially winning back the strengthening of the positions of the European currency against the dollar. Trading activity in the dollar-ruble pair has not changed significantly, but in the euro-ruble pair it has grown, which we attribute to the end of the active phase of the tax period.
The stabilization of the main currency pairs on the Moscow Exchange indicates the market’s desire to form a base for a rebound – although the conditions have not fundamentally changed, the ruble still looks very strong, holding back exporters. We believe that the dollar today will remain in the area of ​​53-55 rubles. The risks of leaving the US currency below 50-52 rubles. slightly weakened, but remain due to strong triggers for a trend reversal.

About author

Oxford graduate with honors. He worked in large financial projects for well-known Wall Street corporations. After he earned his first capital and a reputation as a successful trader, he opened his own company. At the moment, the growth of the company's capital is 20% per year.
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