On Thursday, the ruble fell against the dollar and the euro along with all other EM currencies. After optimism reigned in the last days, global markets were again overwhelmed by the panic associated with the accelerated spread of the Chinese virus and the threat of its negative impact on the world economy. For the ruble, in addition to the general risk aversion to the dollar, a negative factor in the morning was a drop in oil prices.
However, in the afternoon, the situation on the oil market changed dramatically again, and quotes rushed up. By the end of the working day, the brand value added 1% – this allowed the ruble to update the daily maximum, but it was not enough to strengthen to the level of Wednesday closure.
In the domestic interbank market, credit organizations are preparing for the start of the next tax period (preliminary payments on insurance premiums are likely to take place this Friday). However, the first payments to the budget, most likely, will go unnoticed for the market due to the comfortable situation with ruble liquidity, and increased pressure on interbank rates can be expected only closer to the last week of the month, when the main payments will be made.
Yuri Kravchenko, Head of Banking and Money Market Analysis, Veles Capital Investment Company
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