Last weekend, China has already published the first business confidence data. Of course, no one expected positive from these data, but the intrigue was how bad everything would turn out. And it turned out to be very bad. The business confidence index was below the 2008 values. Another reason for the development of panic in the market.
But I note that the market has already laid a lot of negativity in the price. And I would even say that the fright turned out to be excessive.
According to the CME exchange, the market expects a decrease in the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve by 0.5% in March. Prior to publication from China, Powell noted that in which case the Fed will take appropriate measures. It seems that this case is already coming. And really, do not exclude the possibility that the rate in March will be lowered. But not 0.5%. Well, where so much?
In general, this still needs to be dealt with, but I believe that the cheapening of the US dollar in the current panic is too strong. We must begin a full-scale correction.
The main thing is that this panic begins to subside. On this and the calculation in our trading ideas.
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