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The market may go into dividend expectation mode

External background on Thursday morning can be called moderately negative. Oil prices are growing slightly after falling the day before, and the mood on global stock markets is mostly pessimistic. The EU promises to introduce new sanctions against Russia ahead of referenda in the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

External factors

Trading on US stock exchanges on Wednesday, after rising at the beginning of the session, ended with a decrease in the three major indices by about 1.7%. Indicators hit new lows since mid-July and continued their bearish trend after 75 basis points to a 3-3.25% range.

The most negative for the mood was the tone of the regulator, which predicts an increase in the rate to 4.4% by the end of this year, to 4.6% in 2023 and a decrease to 3.9% only in 2024. At the same time, the head of the Fed, Powell, did not rule out a hard drawdown of the American economy to combat it.

Against this background, sales of US stocks continued, reached a new 20-year peak, and the yield of US government bonds strove for multi-year highs, in the region of 3.7%.

in the morning they lose 0.3%. The indicator in the coming sessions may aim at the area of ​​the June low of 3636 points, continuing to win back the risks of a recession during a period of high interest rates.

Trading in Europe on the eve ended with an increase in the index by 0.7%, which was able to get out of the intraday minus. On Thursday, the region is waiting for the summing up of the results of the meetings of the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England, which are likely to keep the course towards tightening monetary policy. Representatives of the ECB also speak about the prospect of further rate hikes.

At the auction in Asia in the morning is dominated by sales. Japanese fell by 0.6%. The Bank of Japan, unlike many Western regulators, kept the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, which put additional pressure on. Australian stock exchanges are closed on Thursday due to a national holiday. Chinese indices mostly fall within 1%. while on Thursday updated another more than two-year low against the dollar.

The nearest futures on and in the morning are adding about 0.5% following the decline of 1% the day before, when prices again failed to maintain intraday plus. Quotes in recent days have moved to fluctuations in a narrow range and remain below short-term resistances of $93.50 and $87 respectively (middle Bollinger bands of the daily charts), feeling pressure from fears of a slowdown in the global economy and a strong dollar, which remain the main ones for quotes. driver.

Events of the day:

  • (11.00 Moscow time);
  • meeting of the Bank of England on , (14.00 Moscow time);
  • in the USA (15.30 Moscow time);
  • speeches by ECB representatives (during the day);
  • Russia in August (19.00 Moscow time);
  • meeting of shareholders of Tatneft (MCX:), decision on dividends.

Market to open

Indices and the day before fell by about 4%, winning back a significant part of intraday losses. The indicators remained below the lines of the recent medium-term uptrend at 2250 and 1180 points (also the lower Bollinger bands of the daily charts), which warns about the risks of updating the February lows of 1681 points and 610 points, respectively. In the short term, however, a strong oversold condition has formed on the market, and therefore attempts to rebound to the indicated resistances cannot be ruled out.

The ruble this morning on Forex adds about 1% to and, being located in the region of 61 rubles. and 59.80 rubles. respectively. The day before, the Russian currency retreated from the upper limit of the medium-term range against the dollar (62 rubles) and continues to trade in the flat. Chinese is losing about 0.6%, being at 8.6 rubles, at the lower limit of the medium-term range.

At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market is likely to remain under downward pressure due to the relevance of negative geopolitical and global economic factors after the tough rhetoric of the Fed. During the session, however, attempts to corrective purchases cannot be ruled out.

Polymetal (MCX:) on Thursday reported a $321 million net loss for 1H 2021, canceled the payment of the final dividend for 2021 and did not offer a dividend for 2022 in order to strengthen the financial stability of the company.

News from Polymetal is quite expected, while on Thursday the market is waiting for shareholders’ decision on Tatneft’s (MCX:) dividends with an expected yield of about 7.5% and 8% on common and preferred shares. The decision may become indicative for other representatives of the oil and gas sector (Gazprom (MCX:), Novatek (MCX:)) and, if positive, support the general market mood.

About author

Oxford graduate with honors. He worked in large financial projects for well-known Wall Street corporations. After he earned his first capital and a reputation as a successful trader, he opened his own company. At the moment, the growth of the company's capital is 20% per year.
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