The last few trading days on the global currency market marked by a general weakening of the dollar against most currencies – (DXY) fell to the area of 97.30-97.40 points (minimums for the month), against this background, the ruble and a number of other currencies of developing countries show a moderate recovery – since the beginning of the week the Russian ruble, the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso, the South African rand added 0.1-1.2%.
We still do not see any drivers for a noticeable increase in volatility in the ruble. At the same time, as we noted earlier, the volatility in the ruble has fallen to multi-year lows – the implied volatility of the pair, based on the prices of three-month options, is kept at lows in late 2013-early 2014.
Separately, we continue to monitor the sanctions issue. Next Wednesday, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee will vote on a bill that imposes sanctions on Russia, including both relatively minor measures (against individual courts and shipbuilding companies) and very significant ones (such as sanctions against the national debt and, for example, energy projects of the Russian Federation). At the same time, we note that so far we are talking only about voting in the profile committee, and not voting of the Senate as a whole, respectively, the process of work on the bill can be quite long.
The dollar/rouble pair has returned to the range of 63.50-64 rubles/dollar, and so far there are no drivers to change the situation.
Mikhail Poddubsky, Promslinkbank
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