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The enthusiasm of buyers in Gazprom is not as great as during the fall

The Russian stock market was in a corrective plus by the middle of the session, continuing its recovery from local lows. by 15:15 Moscow time rose by 2.3%, to 2179.77 points, and the dollar increased by 5.24%, to 1164.76 points, receiving additional support from the strong ruble.

The ruble on the Moscow exchange strengthened by 2-3% against and, being at 59.30 rubles. and 58.30 rubles. respectively. At Forex, the ruble added about 4%, going beyond the lower limit of the medium-term range (58.50 rubles) against the euro. The Chinese lost about 2.5% against the ruble, having also overcome the lower limit of the “outset” of 8.50 rubles. Such a strong dynamics of the ruble at the end of the month can be at least partially explained by the tax period.


By the middle of the day, the leaders of growth were the shares of Gazprom (MCX:) (+7.33%), the papers of TCS Group (MCX:) (+5.35%), GDR Fix Price (MCX:) (+3.6%) , ordinary shares of Rostelecom (MCX:) (+3.55%) and quotes of Gazprom Neft (MCX:) (+3.4%).

Gazprom on Thursday was supported by the words of Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev, who said that he expects the company to fulfill previously announced plans for dividends. In addition, plans to pay semi-annual dividends in the amount of 51.03 rubles. the share was confirmed by a member of the board of Gazprom Famil Sadygov.

From a technical point of view, earlier in the week, Gazprom shares successfully closed the gap formed at the end of August, caused by news about dividend recommendations, which can be considered a positive signal for buyers along with the exit of the cash flow index from the oversold zone. Nevertheless, the papers have yet to overcome the short-term resistance of 238 rubles. (the middle Bollinger band of the daily chart and the lower limit of the recent range) to move to the development of growth.

Trading volumes on the rebound of the last two days are less high than with sales on September 20th. The latter calls for caution in opening new longs on Gazprom, especially before the final decision of shareholders on dividends on September 30th.

The top decliners were Polymetal (MCX:) (-10.65%), Etalon (MCX:) (-3.04%), Polyus (MCX:) (-1.55%), NCSP (MCX 🙂 (-1.42%), shares of RusHydro (MCX:) (-1.34%).

Polymetal collapsed on Thursday after the decision to completely cancel the payment of the final dividend for 2021 and did not offer the payment of dividends for the current year in order to strengthen the financial and operational stability of the company. In addition, the company posted expectedly weak 1H results, including a net loss of $321 mln. Polyus posted weak financial results the day before.

External background: moderately positive

European exchanges: moderately negative. By the middle of the session, the index was losing about 0.8%. Central banks in the region are following the trend of tightening monetary policy. In particular, today the interest rate was raised from -0.25% to 0.5%, and – from 1.75% to 2.25%.

oil market: positive attitude. The nearest futures on and by the middle of the day accelerated growth and added about 1.5%, however, without breaking any significant technical levels. Prices were supported by the suspension of the rally, as well as increased geopolitical risks.

US exchanges: moderately positive attitude. by the middle of the session in Russia added about 0.1% having recovered from intraday lows. The market may stabilize on Thursday following the sales following the Fed meeting.

Sobtija of the day:

weekly number in the USA (15.30 Moscow time)

speeches by ECB representatives (during the day)

Russia in August (19.00 Moscow time)

Tatneft shareholders meeting (MCX:), decision on dividends

Market inside the day

General mood: On foreign stock markets on Thursday there was no unity in sentiment.

European bourses remained under pressure from tightening monetary conditions, oil prices continued to move in a range, and US indices showed readiness for a subdued correction. As part of the rebound from the lows, the indicators of the Moscow Exchange and the RTS tended to the area of ​​2250 and 1180 points, receiving support, among other things, from dividend expectations in the oil and gas sector.

Prospects for the development of strong growth in the Russian market, however, are still in question.

About author

Oxford graduate with honors. He worked in large financial projects for well-known Wall Street corporations. After he earned his first capital and a reputation as a successful trader, he opened his own company. At the moment, the growth of the company's capital is 20% per year.
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