In the global currency market, Friday’s data on the U.S. labor market contributed to a moderate recovery in the dollar against the currencies of developed countries, at the same time the general improvement in sentiment in global markets led to the neutral dynamics of most EM currencies against the dollar. In general, the last trading week passed for EM currencies in a moderately positive way: the Russian ruble, The Mexican peso, the South African rand added 0.3-1.1% against the dollar, and the strengthening, for example, of the Brazilian real and at all amounted to 2.3%.
The coming week will be filled with important events both for the global market (Fed meetings, the ECB, elections in Britain, the expiration of the deadline for the possible imposition of duties by the United States on Chinese imports), and separately for Russian assets (today’s meeting in Paris in the Normandy format, voting in the profile committee of the U.S. Senate on sanctions against Russia on Wednesday and Friday meeting of the Bank of Russia). As for the topic of sanctions, we note that the bill under consideration includes both relatively insignificant measures (sanctions against individual courts and shipbuilding companies) and very significant (such as sanctions against the national debt and, for example, energy projects of the Russian Federation). At the same time, it should be noted that so far it is only a vote in the profile committee, and not a vote of the Senate as a whole, respectively, the process of working on the bill can be quite long.
The pair returned to the range of 63.50-64 rubles/dollar, and today we expect consolidation in this range.
Mikhail Poddubsky, Promslinkbank
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