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Special: Rosneft Revaluation

We have updated our target price for Rosneft shares from RUB 532 to RUB 443 per share. The change in the target price is due to the fact that: – We have revalued the quasi-treasury stake (which is deducted from the net debt in the valuation) in line with the current market price of Rosneft shares (RUB 325). – We took into account the additional volume of oil exports to Asia in the amount of 59 thousand barrels per day or 2.9 million tons per year with an increase in supplies through the port of Kozmino (taking into account additional supplies through Kozmino and a decrease in production at Sakhalin-1). We keep our view on Rosneft. We estimate that the company is trading with a 36% undervaluation on the horizon of the year, taking into account the expected decline in oil prices against the backdrop of a future recession. The company is also of long-term interest in view of the Vostok Oil project. According to the plan, by 2030 the project will provide oil supplies via the NSR to Asia in the amount of 100 million tons (about 50% of the total production of Rosneft and 2 times more than the volume of exports to Asia in 2021).

About author

Oxford graduate with honors. He worked in large financial projects for well-known Wall Street corporations. After he earned his first capital and a reputation as a successful trader, he opened his own company. At the moment, the growth of the company's capital is 20% per year.
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