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Overview of the Russian market: the mood for growth

Market the day before

The week started with a raise. Shares of PIK Group (MCX: 783, +10.64%) broke out into the lead against the backdrop of the publication of financial statements for 2021, as well as Sovcomflot (MCX: 43.17, +0.47%) without an informational reason.

Polyus (MCX: 9,220.0, -2.24%), Polymetal (MCX: 432, -4.30%) and MMC Norilsk Nickel (MCX: 18,586, -1.84%) looked worse than the market on a possible embargo for import from Russia. The pair was trading near 53.

Market and company news

Rally in developer stocks. Developers’ papers are reacting violently to information about lowering mortgage rates (50-80% of all new buildings in the country are purchased at the expense of appropriate loans). Investors’ optimism was also added by the publication of PIK’s financial statements for the past year.

The company’s revenue in the Moscow region increased by 41%, and the total turnover grew by 28%, to 487 billion rubles. The share of mortgage transactions amounted to 77%. Profit increased by 20% to 103 billion rubles, or 156 rubles. per share.

However, we want to emphasize that the results in the past do not directly determine the performance in the future. Real estate prices declined in June, including in key regions, on the back of falling demand and an increase in alternative supply.

The company may pay dividends later this year. However, this is unlikely, in our opinion, as the Board of Directors previously recommended not to distribute the annual profit to shareholders.

We expect that the dynamics of developers’ quotes will be largely determined by price movements and the situation on the mortgage market. The rally, in our opinion, will be short-lived.

Trading Ideas

Sberbank (MCX: 140.55, +2.03%), spec. purchase, purpose: 160 rubles. Preferential mortgage rates have been reduced to 6.7%. The volume of issuance of consumer loans in June may double compared to May, when loans were issued for 67 billion rubles. Reducing the key rate will help revive retail and corporate lending.

expectations

We expect growth within 1.5%. There are no significant events in focus, the news background is calm. We believe that it can rise to the range of 2430-2480 points. A rebound of the USD/RUB pair to the 54-56 corridor is not ruled out. The slowdown in the rate of strengthening of the ruble may provoke speculative purchases.

About author

Oxford graduate with honors. He worked in large financial projects for well-known Wall Street corporations. After he earned his first capital and a reputation as a successful trader, he opened his own company. At the moment, the growth of the company's capital is 20% per year.
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