On Monday, the ruble, along with other currencies of emerging markets, is correcting up after a panic and sales last week. The overall improvement in the external background is accompanied by a marked increase in oil quotes, which regained their positions above the psychological level of $ 50 per barrel of mark and provide serious support to the ruble.
In addition, it should be noted that at the end of last week, the ruble was exacerbated by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Syria, however, after the weekend, investors calmed down a bit about this, which is an important factor in supporting the domestic currency on Monday.
It is possible that today's growth in EM currencies is only a short-term profit-taking in the dollar and does not reflect a complete improvement in investor risk appetite. A new piece of news on the spread of coronavirus in the United States and leading European countries could provoke another panic in global financial markets. Nevertheless, the geopolitical situation will remain an important factor for the ruble, and further easing of tension in this direction will allow the ruble to look better than other EM currencies, even if the external background regarding the coronavirus remains negative.
A comfortable atmosphere is maintained in the domestic interbank market, despite a large outflow of liquidity in the framework of tax payments. In the last days of the tax period, there was a counterflow of funds into the banking system through the budget channel, so the payment of income tax at the end of last week remained almost unnoticed for the market. The positive spread of MosPrime o / n rate to the key rate of the Central Bank expanded to a three-week high (20 bp), nevertheless, the liquidity balance of banks on correspondent accounts with the regulator remains at a comfortable level of 2+ trillion rubles, which will probably allow you to quickly adjust the rates down.
Yuri Kravchenko, Head of Banking and Money Market Analysis, Veles Capital Investment Company
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