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Forecast and events for the next week

and, obviously, will start the next week below the medium-term resistances of 2270 and 1200 points respectively (middle Bollinger bands of the weekly charts), which, on the one hand, indicates the risks of maintaining bearish pressure with the prospect of moving towards the February lows of 1681 and 610 points in the coming weeks. The negative scenario in the short term with the continuation of large-scale sales, however, is most likely to be realized in the event of another geopolitical shock (general aggravation of the situation, new painful sanctions), as well as the refusal of Gazprom (MCX:) shareholders from dividends at the meeting on September 30th. At the moment, the comments of both officials and the leadership of the gas giant itself rather allow us to expect the approval of payments, which would be a short-term positive for the market, but the decision will be made at the very end of next week.

Dividends in the coming days must also be approved by the shareholders of Novatek (MCX:), Samolet and RUSAL (MCX:), while payout registers will be closed for PhosAgro (MCX:) and KuibyshevAzot. Qiwi will present financial results for the first half of the year. In the short term, hope for the development of corrective growth in the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices will appear above 2150 and 1120 points (the lower Bollinger bands of the daily charts) with the prospect of a rebound to the area of ​​2370 and 1240 points (the middle Bollinger bands of the daily charts). Fundamentally, the main reason for buying could be dividend expectations, otherwise the market remains geopolitical nervousness.

The ruble during the tax period and in conditions of limited demand for “toxic” currencies shows particular strength and tests the strength of the lower boundaries of the medium-term ranges against the dollar (58 rubles), (58.50 rubles) and (8.5 rubles). It is possible that until the end of the month the trend towards the strengthening of the ruble will continue, and the next targets for its movement against the dollar, euro and yuan will be 56 rubles, 54 rubles. and 8 rubles. respectively.

Oil futures, at the same time, do not show signs of a change in the bearish trend, which can be expected to develop if it is below the resistances of $87 and $93.50 with the prospect of updating new lows since the beginning of this year. The main reasons for selling remain the same: global risk aversion and the strengthening of the US dollar.

On foreign markets, the week will be marked by the release of final data on the GDP of Germany and the United States for the 3rd quarter, a preliminary estimate of consumer inflation in Germany and the eurozone for September (acceleration is expected), indicators of the business climate, consumer confidence and expectations of Germany and the United States, German retail sales, data on orders for durable goods and the US housing market, the Fed’s preferred indicator of inflation – the price consumption index. In China, there will be data on the country’s business activity in the service sector and manufacturing, which is likely to show continued weakness. In addition, there will be speeches by the heads of the ECB and the Fed. There are still no significant positive drivers from foreign sites, so we can expect stock indicators to strive to update local lows with possible periods of corrective rebound.

About author

Oxford graduate with honors. He worked in large financial projects for well-known Wall Street corporations. After he earned his first capital and a reputation as a successful trader, he opened his own company. At the moment, the growth of the company's capital is 20% per year.
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