Tuesday, December 24, allowed the ruble once again to enjoy victory over the dollar and the euro, “passing on the smoky trail of the retreating enemy.” The dollar and the euro retreated strongly: by the close of trading on the eve of Western Christmas, the exchange rate of the dollar by calculations “tomorrow” fell by 31 kop. (-0.49%), having re-examined the next low of 61.96 rubles and the euro fell by 37pc. (-0.54%), to 68.68 rubles, the dollar thus fell to the levels of June 2018, and the euro has never fallen against the ruble so low since December 2017.
Tax period, positive news from China and the United States regarding the future trade deal and rising oil prices, as well as perhaps some normalization of relations between Russia and Ukraine, which is associated with investors with possible cancellation anti-Russian sanctions by the European Union, contributes to the strengthening of the ruble.
The price of ICE crude oil continued to rise by 0.6% before the Western Christmas break, rising 0.6 percent to $65.98 per barrel, mostly on U.S.-China optimism and raising forecasts for average annual oil prices in 2020 by some global investment banks.
Today in the U.S. and in European markets there is no trading in connection with the Christmas holidays, so we can expect that there will be no significant movements in the ruble pairs at today’s auctions.
We believe that today the ruble may strengthen a little. We reduce the forecast for the dollar to 61.5-62.7 rubles, and at the euro rate also reduce the forecast to 68-69.2 rubles.
Natalia Milchakova, deputy head of alpari Information and Analysis Centre