As we expected, the stock market rose yesterday, but failed to overcome the 2200 mark. Today there will be attempts to break through this resistance, but their outcome is not clear.
Shares of Gazprom (MCX:) were among the growth leaders, which was supported by the statement of the company’s deputy chairman Famil Sadigov about his intention to pay dividends. Thus, the risks that the meeting of shareholders will again not make a decision on payments have sharply decreased. Gazprom grew by more than 8%, but the dividend yield of its shares still remains above 20%. We are waiting for the paper to continue growing, and we do not exclude its departure to the area of 300 rubles.
At the end of the month, the shareholders of NovaTEK (MCX:) will also approve the decision on payments. We consider it less risky to pay dividends for NovaTEK than for Gazprom. Most likely, in the coming days, NovaTEK will trade better than the market, despite the fact that spot gas prices in Europe have dropped below $2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.
Things are a little worse for the oil industry. Lukoil (MCX:) has not yet decided to distribute profits, but with a high probability it will do so. It is not yet clear when Rosneft (MCX:) shareholders will approve the semi-annual payments.
Today, oil stocks will be under pressure, and dividend expectations will provide only marginal support for them. and cannot consolidate above $92 per barrel, which would open the way for movement to the resistance of $105. The European Union is again talking about introducing a price ceiling for Russian oil. This issue may begin to be discussed at the weekend, so the desire to cover speculative longs in the oil industry will be justified.
If we add to this that Norilsk Nickel (MCX 🙂 cannot gain strength, which definitely needs to gain a foothold above 15 thousand rubles. to avoid a downtrend, it is not yet clear whether Gazprom will be able to pull out the entire .
Additionally, the strengthening ruble will put pressure on the stock market. According to the materials of the Ministry of Finance, the budget rule will not work next year, so the ruble will remain under the influence of exclusively market factors.
Given the growing toxicity of the dollar and the need to pay for their storage, these currencies will be used less and less for hedging risks on ruble assets and for medium-term speculation.
The technical picture now speaks in favor of the continued growth of the Russian currency: the pair is trying to gain a foothold below the 60-61 corridor, in which it spent most of the last month and a half.
The goal of the pair’s movement is now area 55, and we do not exclude its achievement.