The optimism laid in the markets by promises of representatives of the world Central Banks (and mainly the US Federal Reserve) to take the necessary measures to support the economy did not last long. In the morning, the ruble, along with other currencies of emerging markets, traded in the green zone, however, in the afternoon, investor sentiment changed and risk aversion accelerated at most EM sites. Paired with the dollar, the ruble strengthened by the end of the working day by 0.2%, trading at around 67.
At the same time, global trading floors continued to be dominated by sharply higher expectations for easing the Fed's interest rate policy, while maintaining pressure on the US currency against major world currencies. DXY lost by the end of the day about 0.6%, including the dollar falling by 1% paired with the euro, which allowed the European currency to “touch” 75 rubles. on the Russian market – for the first time since March 2019
A comfortable environment remains in the domestic interbank market, despite a large outflow of liquidity from tax payments. In the last days of the tax period, there was a counterflow of funds into the banking system through the budget channel, so the payment of income tax at the end of last week remained almost unnoticed for the market. The positive spread of MosPrime o / n rate to the Central Bank key rate expanded to a three-week high (19 bp on Monday), however, the bank's liquidity balances on correspondent accounts with the regulator remain at a comfortable level of 2+ trillion rubles, which will probably allow for quick adjustment of rates.
Yuri Kravchenko, Head of Banking and Money Market Analysis, Veles Capital Investment Company
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