Over the week of February 5-12, sentiment in the post-Soviet currency markets was very mixed: there were growing currencies, and outsiders, and those who maintained neutrality (Alpari uses the official rates of the respective central banks for the indicated dates as data) It is important to note that for the currencies of the post-Soviet space, the Chinese coronavirus, already called COVID-19, was not the main driver last week.
The leader in growth among the post-Soviet currencies against the US dollar was the Kyrgyz som (+ 0.51%). Besides him, Kazakhstan tenge (+ 0.47%) and Ukrainian hryvnia (+ 0.45%) showed good growth. Tajik somoni and Uzbek sum were able to show insignificant growth, while the Turkmen and Azerbaijani manats, as always, showed neutral dynamics. The Belarusian ruble (-2.03%) became the leader in the week, and the Moldovan leu (-1.16%) also fell pretty much. Other currencies of the post-Soviet countries, including the Russian ruble, went weaker minus for the week and lost about half a percent against the dollar, including the Russian ruble fell by 0.54%.
The Kyrgyz som strengthened against the dollar, most likely due to currency interventions by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, which, according to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, it has been implementing since January 31 and has already sold more than $ 27 million to support the national currency.
The dynamics of the Kazakhstan tenge, like the Russian ruble, is quite significantly affected by oil prices. Last week, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan considered the recommendation of the OPEC + technical committee to further reduce oil production. According to Energy Minister Nurlan Nogaev, a final decision on further participation of Kazakhstan in the OPEC + deal has not yet been made. For the foreign exchange market, this news, however, turned out to be quite positive: apparently, it was read that Kazakhstan was not opposed to participate in measures leading to an increase in oil prices, but taking into account the interests of its economy and national oil producers.
Last week, the Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key interest rate again from 6.25% to 6%. This is important to stimulate economic growth, but the foreign exchange market reacted to this event with a fall, probably because the forecasts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation do not take into account the influence of the COVID-19 virus factor on the Russian economy.
We predict next week the rate in the framework of 63-64.5 rubles. per dollar, and the dollar against the Kazakhstan tenge in the range of 376-379 tenge per dollar.
Natalia Milchakova, Deputy Director of the Alpari Analytical Department