At the end of yesterday, the Russian ruble added about 0.6% against the dollar, while the pair fell just below the 64 ruble/dollar mark. The main group of currencies of developing countries yesterday showed mostly neutral dynamics, but some support for the ruble yesterday could be provided by local capital inflow to the debt market of the Russian Federation, where the trend towards correction has stopped.
Today, the payment of income tax starts the November tax period. The peak of tax payments this month traditionally falls on the 25-28 number, when Russian companies pay VAT, NDPI, excise taxes and income tax, and in November traditionally the total amount of payments is less than usual (in our estimation, this month in the period 25-28 the volume of payments will be 1.1 trillion rubles). According to our model, the equilibrium rate of the ruble at oil prices is near 62 USD/barrel. and the current macro level is near 65.50 rubles/dollar.
Today we expect the consolidation of the dollar/rouble pair near the 64 ruble/dollar mark. On the horizon of the week we see reasons for re-leaving above this mark.
Mikhail Poddubsky, Promslinkbank
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